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US Government Reserves Remain Bitcoin-Free Through 2025
Highly Likely

US Government Reserves Remain Bitcoin-Free Through 2025

Current Probability98%
Impossible (0%)Certain (100%)

Event Context

The United States government has maintained a cautious stance regarding direct holdings of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin within its official reserves. Discussions surrounding digital assets have largely focused on regulatory frameworks, potential risks, and the exploration of central bank digital currencies, rather than the acquisition of Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The market's resolution hinges on whether any U.S. government entity, excluding confiscated assets, holds Bitcoin by the close of 2025. Current policy directions and the absence of any official initiatives to integrate Bitcoin into national reserves suggest this outcome is highly probable.

Policy makers and financial regulators have primarily addressed concerns related to financial stability, consumer protection, and illicit finance rather than exploring Bitcoin as a sovereign investment. The distinction that confiscated assets do not count towards reserve holdings further narrows the potential pathways for the 'Yes' outcome. Without a significant policy shift or a declared strategic interest in Bitcoin reserves, the expectation remains that such holdings will not materialize by the end of 2025.

Sources within the financial sector indicate that the focus remains on understanding and potentially regulating the broader digital asset ecosystem, rather than incorporating volatile cryptocurrencies into the nation's core financial reserves. This strategic approach, coupled with the specific resolution criteria, underpins the high probability that the U.S. government will not hold Bitcoin reserves within the specified timeframe. Global Finance Today has reported on the ongoing regulatory deliberations, highlighting the absence of any plans for Bitcoin acquisition by federal reserve authorities.

Resolution Rules

Market resolves 'No' if US government holds no Bitcoin in reserves by December 31, 2025. Confiscated assets do not count.

Resolution Deadline

December 31, 2025

Market Source: Polymarket

ID: be03dcf1