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Russia Ukraine Ceasefire Agreement Eludes End of 2025 Deadline
Highly Likely

Russia Ukraine Ceasefire Agreement Eludes End of 2025 Deadline

Current Probability96%
Impossible (0%)Certain (100%)

Event Context

As the December 31, 2025 deadline approaches, the prospect of a comprehensive ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine remains uncertain, with ongoing hostilities marking the conflict's continuation. Despite international calls for peace, the fundamental disagreements between Moscow and Kyiv regarding territorial integrity and security guarantees have presented significant obstacles to any formal cessation of hostilities.

The war, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, has seen numerous localized pauses and humanitarian corridors, but no overarching agreement that would signify a complete halt to military operations. Both sides have maintained demands that are seen as irreconcilable by the other, making diplomatic breakthroughs exceedingly difficult. The lack of trust and the deep-seated nature of the conflict suggest that a formal, mutually agreed-upon ceasefire by the end of 2025 is a challenging objective CNN.

Analysts and observers suggest that any potential ceasefire would likely require substantial shifts in the geopolitical landscape or a significant change in the military situation on the ground. Without such developments, the conflict is expected to persist, with sporadic fighting continuing across the front lines, making the achievement of an official, lasting ceasefire a remote possibility within the stipulated timeframe BBC News.

Sources

Resolution Rules

Resolves to 'No' if no publicly announced, mutually agreed halt in military engagement between Russia and Ukraine occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Informal agreements or humanitarian pauses do not count.

Resolution Deadline

December 31, 2025

Market Source: Polymarket

ID: 4d37016e